Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Shenendehowa         (02)      38
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      52
  3   Warwick              (09)     110
  4   Suffern              (01)     123
  5   Brockport            (05)     149
  6   Walt Whitman         (11)     162
  7   Binghamton           (04)     162
  8   Port Washington      (08)     178
  9   Lockport             (06)     195

		 

Pre-Race Analysis ... Shenendehowa is quite possibly one of the top teams in the nation ... Shenendehowa's improved team performances at sectionals and Suburban Council Championships generated speed figures worthy of a national champion ... My one concern is this - both races occurred at Saratoga Park (a place where Shen trains and races frequently) ... It is not uncommon for many teams to post higher speed figures at courses they know well ... and some teams simply race better on certain courses or specific types of courses ... The upcoming championship meets to be contested over two frequently-raced and well-rated courses (Sunken Meadow and Bowdoin Park) will be a good benchmark for Shenendehowa and all other NY teams.

Shenendehowa's major advantage is excellent team depth ... even their #6 and #7 runners posted ratings of 174 and 173 (but again, that occurred at Saratoga Park) ... Team strength at the the #4 and #5 positions suggest Shenendehowa could win States handily.

Fayetteville-Manlius popped an exceptional performance at Jamesville Beach (Section 3 sectionals) ... five of the top six runners had significant seasonal-best performances (and the other, Alex Hatz, posted a 192 rating) ... The top two Fayetteville-Manlius runners (Alex Hatz and Paul Merriman) have been running well all season ... What really helps the Fayetteville-Manlius team effort is the significant improvement of #3 runner Brendan Farrell (seasonal figures of 187, 179, 168, 151) - he was hindered earlier in the season by mononucleosis ... In order to beat Shenendehowa, Fayetteville-Manlius will need some big performances at the #4 and #5 positions.

Warwick Valley stepped-up nicely to win the Section 9 sectional (over Washingtonville who beat Warwick at OCIAA) ... Suffern raced well at Section 1 sectionals in defeating some good teams (Arlington and North Rockland, who are good Federation at-large candidates along with Washingtonville).

Individual Race ... This could be a very interesting race ... Currently, the top 10 Class AA runners have overall speed ratings between 186 and 192 which could indicate a very competitive race ... Top-rated Alex Hatz (FM) is a slight favorite; Hatz was a very impressive winner at sectionals ... Alex Leachanka (Shen) has posted excellent ratings in recent races (191 and 192) and could be considered the co-favorite ... Quinn Raseman (Ward Melville) ran a very good time at divisional championships held at Sunken Meadow (16:11, 191 rating); his performances and familiarity with Sunken Meadow make Raseman a serious contender for the individual title ... John Muller (Arlington) has also posted ratings in the 190s and is a potential winner.

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                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      34
  2   Wantagh              (08)      68
  3   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      70
  4   Jamesville Dewitt    (03)     100
  5   Fox Lane             (01)     102
  6   Half H Hills West    (11)     164
  7   Maine-Endwell        (04)     182
  8   Hutch Tech           (06)     188
  9   Goshen               (09)     201
 10   Massena              (10)     310

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills is the solid favorite in Class A  ... Burnt Hills has raced well all season ... they needed a good performance to beat Section 2 rival Queensbury at sectionals by 10 points (Queensbury would probably do very well in this race if allowed to run).

Wantagh and Pittsford-Mendon seem very evenly matched (a real pick-em for betting purposes).

Individual Race ... Joe Whelan (Hamburg), the pre-season #1 rated runner, is running very nicely after a slow start (presumably due to injury); Whelan won a division of the Suffolk Officials Invite at Sunken Meadow in October ... Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills) has run well all season and is a definite contender for the individual win.